Letter to shareholders Value Bonds Q4 2012

Our macro-economic view is one of guarded optimism.
We do not envisage steep recoveries occurring anywhere in the world, but we do see scope for the US and China to make gradual ‘middle-of-the-road’ recoveries, leading to slow improvement globally.
The potential drivers for growth are different in each case. 

In China, an easing of monetary policy means that credit restrictions are being lifted and we expect positive effects from this to filter through to the real economy. 

In the US, the housing sector recovery is probably already stronger than we see it reported in the Press and should lift consumer spending. In the current low interest-rate environment, it is entirely possible for the US private sector to compensate for the inevitable fiscal retrenchment. The key for policy makers is to get the timing right. We do not, therefore, envisage a recovery strong enough to require a US interest-rate hike.ke.

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